Apple - Linear vs. Non-linear Thinking

Human beings tend to think in linear fashion: what happens in the past will happen again in the future...the future follows the patterns drawn by the past...what is going well will keep going well...what is falling will continue to fall...

Linear thinking on Apple:
- iPod: people will never switch to MP3 players because of they investments they made in CDs and CD players; why would anyone go through the trouble of plugging their MP3 players to a computer to get music?
- iPhone: it has no keyboard! the battery lasts hardly longer than one day! why would I need to browse the internet on such a small screen when a laptop can do the job 10x better?
- iPad: why would I need a smaller, but more expensive Netbook? and no keyboard?!
- Apple Watch: why would I want to update my expensive watch every two years? why would I substitute the status simple (Rolex) for a general piece of consumer technology on the wrist? the battery hardly lasts longer than one day!
- China: consumers in China will keep buying the more expensive iPhones because it is one of the must-have middle-class symbols
- India: consumers in India will never afford iPhones when lower cost Android phones from China can do the same tasks at 1/4-or-below the retail prices

Non-linear thinking on Apple:
- iPod: MP3 players is not about music, but about the distribution of music
- iPhone: the new smartphone is about replacing feature phone functions, or mimicking productivity tools on notebook and PDAs, but about rethinking computing as personal and mobile necessity
- iPad: tablet is not about replacing notebooks, but mobile computing in a simplified package
- Apple Watch: the most frequent way people communicate with a computing device are measured in seconds, not minutes or hours; the number of digital connections between devices will grow exponentially, some a devices is needed to sit in the center of that mesh network
- China: a nationalist chairman and ascending value of Chinese handset OEMs will lure domestic consumers away from Apple. A increasingly conservative government will shut down App Store  (over which it does not have control) in China, reducing iPhone to a standalone smartphone without the benefit of the iOS ecosystem
- India: without strong domestic handset maker presence, Indian consumers will flock to iPhone in a more aggressive fashion than Chinese in pursuit of middle class status