- how much downside will GoPro present in the near-term?
- there has been speculation that GoPro contribute as much as 40% of AMBA revenues in normal times. That % contribution is likely to decline in 1Q and 2Q based on GoPro's weak camera sales and slashed product line (low-end Hero)
- how much growth potential is left at GoPro for 2H16?
- GoPro will announced its camera drone toward mid-2016 and its new flagship around 3Q16. Street consensus for GPRO's 4Q16 have come down significantly, implying low expectations for new flagship camera sales. If the action camera market is on a structure decline then GoPro will be a constant overhang than growth booster.
- how much slack can camera drone customers pick up to offset the declining GPRO sales?
- estimating camera drone sales is not as hard as figuring out drone chip ASP and margin profiles; this piece of the puzzle should be the easiest
- what supply chain data points can an investor reply on, and to what extent?
- with lowered GPRO contribution, Chicony data points may no longer be viable
- Are QCOM and low-cost contenders like Allwinner presenting real threat?
- one needs to understand where QCOM competes (drone and home security cam? what about auto?), the pros and cons of QCOM solution, and if the markets are large enough to draw serious interest from QCOM.
- how big can AMBA's auto opportunity be?
- can dash camera sales grow given emerging markets weakness? will ADAS features from VisLab fend off competition from tier-1 chip vendors? where are the overlaps between NVIDIA, QCOM, Intel, and Mobileye?
Tuesday, February 23, 2016
Things to consider as an AMBA investor
Ambarella (AMBA) rose the wave up and down with GoPro. After GoPro reported its 4Q earnings and 1Q16 guidance, AMBA was hitting its rock bottom as well. If one is considering investing in AMBA at today's price, I believe the following issues should be carefully studied before the investor place the order:
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