2010/2011 - a number of things I was wrong about

1. Cleantech: just because the godfather of cleantech investing said 2011 for cleantech companies will be the same as 1999 for internet companies does not mean it would really happen. And seeking evidence from rosy pictures depicted by some would-be portfolio companies did not help. They merely enhanced a man's erroneous view with confirmation bias. When I reviewed the cleantech companies my previous employer was looking at, I was basically cherry-picking evidence for a prediction I already formed in my head: cleantech will go big in 2011. It was not an objective observation, but a opinion without ample support. I underestimated the tremendous price decline of raw material (therefore ASP decline for module makers) and overestimated the capital market's appetite for solar companies. If the IPO had been strong for 2H11, a number of our portfolio companies could have gone public. But of course, one can never catch the right pulse of the market.

2. Facebook: I remember the day I sat in weekly meetings with the investment committee of my previous employer giving social network updates. I gathered the latest and hottest news in the social network space and invoke small scale contempt. We followed SecondMarket and SharesPost closely for private share transactions of these hot start-up companies to get a sense of their valuations. Every time I announced a new valuation high of Facebook, the meeting room was echoed with a round of suppressed contemptuous giggle and most people had that type of "this is ridiculous" impression. That was the when Facebook was valued at $10 billion. Later, when late stage investors rushed in for $35 or even $50 billion valuation, we still secretly have that "this is ridiculous" impression. As an intern my lesson cost less - I came away knowing that: 1) you don't bet against mega trend; 2) respect the "smart" money; 3) stay removed from your personal feeling on the product/service. You don't get it doesn't mean it sucks (seek professional assistance!!). My ex-employer suffered more damage, at least from a marketing / future fund raising prospective. A similar fund with similar strategy and philosophy invested in Facebook and Twitter, and the fund's share trading on Nasdaq doubled at the news of Facebook's filing. Now you can simply go to investors and tell them that "we invested in FB when it is valued at ### (a price way lower than its market cap).  The position in its portfolio may be too small to make once-in-a-life-time return but the leverage for marketing is tremendous. Image Accel Partners having difficulty raising funds!